The midterms effect on stocks, read through onchain positioning

How prediction markets and onchain perps read the midterms hours before the US open.

Megacap earnings on Hyperliquid and Polymarket

Megacap earnings on Hyperliquid and Polymarket

After Issuance: Reading the Onchain RWA Market

A full view of how much value in traditional assets now lives onchain, how it is used, and whether it tells you something the offchain market doesn't.

Amodei, Musk and Altman called for slowing AI down, and chip stocks fell on Hyperliquid first

Hyperliquid's HIP-3 perpetuals marked AI chip stocks down through a weekend of public AI-risk warnings from Amodei, Musk and Altman, while every equity exchange was shut.

Digital Asset Brief: What Onchain Payments Add

Instant payment schemes already beat onchain payments on speed, domestic cost and ticket size, so what onchain adds is access.

The Fed has never been this hard to call a week out

With a week to go, a September quarter-point hike prices at 56% on Polymarket and 54% on Kalshi, against a median of 96% for the leading outcome seven days out across the last 27 settled FOMC decisions, which went on to win 26 times.

Hyperliquid priced WTI while futures were shut

Oil futures close for 49 hours every weekend and Hyperliquid's CL perpetual does not: across 30 closures this year it called the direction of the Monday reopen every time oil moved more than a percentage point, twenty out of twenty, and was wrong three times in ten below that.

Warsh's speech moved Fed pricing more than five inflation prints

Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on 28 August contained no data and moved the September 25bp FOMC contract from 30% to 52% within three hours on both venues, outmoving five of this year's six CPI prints.

A holistic view of real-world assets

First look at Dune's RWA dataset, which tracks real-world assets in both forms, tokenized and synthetic, across supply, holders, secondary trading, perpetuals and collateral use.

NVIDIA earnings contracts on Polymarket

The note reads what Polymarket priced into NVIDIA's 26 August result, scores the venue against the fourteen NVIDIA contracts that had already resolved, and widens out to the 28 companies reporting that week.

Anthropic IPO contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket

Bloomberg reported on 20 August that Anthropic is preparing to file publicly for an IPO as soon as the end of the month, and the 204 Anthropic contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket repriced the timing within minutes while leaving the valuation where it was.

Tracking the AI trade in prediction markets and perpetuals

The leverage in the AI trade sits in the memory supply chain, not in Nvidia.

Digital Asset Brief #5: Korea's Chip Crash

$21.8B of synthetic SK Hynix exposure traded through Seoul's trading halts on Hyperliquid's HIP-3 perpetuals.

The Institutional Yield Map

Where onchain yield comes from: sixteen sources across lending, yield-bearing dollars, staking and liquid staking, measured as realised return over 44 months.

Prediction markets are the real winners of the World Cup

Kalshi and Polymarket cleared $19 billion of notional volume on 2026 World Cup markets, more than the entire US legal sportsbook handle, with volume, participation and pricing diverging sharply between the two venues.

Capital Efficiency in Concentrated Liquidity

A study for 1inch on how much concentrated-liquidity capital sits idle, the fees that go uncollected as a result, and what DEX liquidity would need to look like to compete with centralised exchanges.

A Behavioral Map of Stablecoins

Market cap and transfer volume make stablecoins look like one category led by USDT and USDC.

Who Is Actually Moving the Money on Polymarket? Institutional vs retail volume

Breaks Polymarket volume down by trader size to separate institutional-scale flow from retail, and sizes how much of the venue's activity each group accounts for.

Prediction-Market Pricing of the 2026 Mega-IPOs

Uses prediction-market contracts to track how the 2026 mega-IPO cohort was priced ahead of listing, covering both timing and valuation expectations.

Digital Asset Brief #2: Tokenized Equities & Perps

Two routes are bringing traditional assets onchain: tokenization, where the asset exists as a transferable token, and perpetuals, which give exposure without any token existing.

Tokenized RWAs Are Two Markets, Not One

Tokenized RWAs and synthetic RWA perpetuals are usually counted as one market but behave as two, with different assets, holders and turnover on each side.

Pricing the Fed: Kalshi, Polymarket, and CME FedWatch

Across the Jan, Mar and Apr 2026 FOMC meetings, Kalshi and Polymarket priced "no change" 5-20 cents richer than CME FedWatch for two to three months before converging at resolution.

How Prediction Markets Priced the 2025 Fed Cut Path

Reconstructs how prediction markets priced the 2025 Fed cut path meeting by meeting, and where that pricing led or lagged the futures-implied path.

The Pendle Effect

The Pendle Effect is real but depends on starting conditions.

The Rise of Composable RWAs

About $2.7B of the $27B in tokenized RWA AUM is actively deposited in DeFi lending, roughly 10%, up from almost nothing a year earlier.

Anatomy of Polymarket's Fastest Markets

Short-duration markets now drive 20-25% of Polymarket volume, and they are bot territory.

Prediction Markets vs Perps in the Iran Oil Shock

Compared Polymarket and Ostium through the oil move from $66 to $115.

Beyond Dollarization

Looks at stablecoin activity outside the US dollar: non-USD issuance, FX behaviour, and the geographic corridors where local-currency stablecoins are actually being used.

What Maple's $4B AUM Says About Onchain Assets

Maple's roughly $4B of AUM is concentrated in stablecoin-denominated credit: about $2.65B in syrupUSDC and $1.3B in syrupUSDT, with a further $460M in institutional secured lending pools.

Stablecoin report

An in-depth analysis of the stablecoin ecosystem, market dynamics, and future trends.

Prediction markets report

Comprehensive analysis of prediction markets, covering volume, accuracy, and institutional adoption.

RWA report

Comprehensive insights into real-world assets onchain and tokenization trends.

2025 multichain report

Growth and milestones across 35+ blockchains, from Ethereum L2s to emerging L1s.