Prediction markets
The next frontier of financial markets
A joint report · Published Dec 2025
Prediction markets are becoming the world's most accurate information network.
In under two years, monthly notional volume in prediction markets has surged 130x, from under $100M to $13B+.
But volume is only part of the story.
Prediction markets are evolving into real-time information systems, event-level hedging tools, and a new asset class pricing everything from elections and inflation to AI breakthroughs.
In this report, Dune and Keyrock map the prediction-market ecosystem end-to-end, from its historical roots and design space to its explosive growth and emerging use cases, delivering one of the first full-stack, data-driven views of this rapidly evolving market layer.
Prediction markets in numbers
Prediction markets are not gambling
Higher accuracy than polls and expert surveys
Faster reaction time than econometric models
Cleaner hedging mechanics than traditional derivatives
More transparent signals than media narratives
How prediction markets are being used
Institutional hedging and macro trading
Corporate forecasting and decision systems
Retail distribution and market integration
Data & ecosystem contributors
“Polymarket has spent years building the world's largest prediction market.”
Matthew Modabber
CMO, Polymarket
“We're proud that it [Polymarket] runs on the speed, reliability, and low fees of the Polygon network”
Marc Boiron
CEO, Polygon Labs
“Kalshi is becoming the de facto liquidity layer for onchain prediction markets, starting with Jupiter on Solana.”
John Wang
Head of Crypto, Kalshi
“Event contracts function like traditional hedging tools for commodities, rates, or equity volatility, but offer direct exposure instead of indirect proxies.”
Travis McGhee
Global Head of Predictions, Crypto.com
“For us, the future is embedding MYRIAD as a protocol, prediction markets at a protocol layer, everywhere we can.”
Farokh Sarmad
President & Co-Founder, DASTAN
“...prediction markets are a clear wedge for tens of millions of net new consumers to come onchain without even realizing it.”
cygaar
Abstract
“...prediction markets start becoming a core part of how people understand what's happening in the world”
Lee Poettcker
Product Manager, UMA
“When I first built this dashboard I just had a really simple question: Are these markets actually predicting outcomes accurately?”
Alex McCullough
Customer Success Manager, Awaken Tax
“Prediction markets will become a powerful force in finance because they enable pure speculation without the baggage of traditional derivatives.”
Justin Riggs
CEO, Re-Loan
“One of the biggest untapped opportunities is in markets that do not have traditional futures contracts.”
Nass Diba
Co-Founder, Worm
“In a world dominated by fast content and short dopamine loops, prediction markets need to evolve into experiences that are intellectually rewarding.”
Edison
CEO, Based
“We see institutional adoption of prediction markets emerging across three use cases: proprietary trading, forecasting, and exposure hedging.”
Duncan Hennes
Managing Director, KPMG
“During Ethereum's debate over changing its consensus algorithm, we explored a conditional trade that would execute only if ProgPoW was adopted.”
Stefan George
Co-Founder, Gnosis
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