Apr 28, 2026
OpenAI-Linked Stocks Slump on Report of Startup's Missed Targets
References Bloomberg analysis of Polymarket data compiled on Dune, including trader activity and prediction market trends.
Every Kalshi and Polymarket market unified into a single probability time series. Trade-level data, hourly price history, and resolution outcomes.
The market-implied probability layer for macro, equity, and event-driven research.
Surveys give you a median. Options give you a hedge. Prediction markets give you a full probability distribution across every rate outcome, earnings threshold, and policy scenario. Updated hourly, from traders with real capital at risk.
History
3+ YEARS
Notional volume
~$170B
Unified schema
2 VENUES → 1
Candlestick prices
HOURLY
Who this is for
Macro and rates desks
Kalshi rate markets give you a full probability distribution across Federal Reserve outcome levels, not a single consensus point. Track how the distribution shifts hour by hour ahead of Federal Reserve meetings, inflation releases, and jobs reports. Covers every meeting since June 2021.
Equity research and event-driven
Corporate target markets, equity benchmark close distributions, and political signals for sector rotation. Use implied ranges as a prior when sizing ahead of catalysts. Strongest coverage on large-cap, high-profile events.
Quant and systematic researchers
Every resolved Kalshi market is labeled ground truth: known outcome, hourly probability path from open to settlement. Per-fill Polymarket data supports market-impact modeling and wallet-level smart-money studies.
Crypto research firms
Polymarket wallet attribution is joinable to every decentralized exchange, token, and wallet-label dataset in Dune in one SQL query. Token threshold and ETF approval markets act as signals for crypto-exposed equities.
How teams use this dataset
Macro desks read the full distribution
Every resolved market is labeled ground truth: a probability path from open to settlement with a known outcome.
Equity teams use markets as priors
Implied ranges provide a market prior ahead of earnings, delivery targets, policy decisions, and product catalysts.
Quants backtest resolved history
Use years of resolved outcomes to test how well implied probabilities predicted results.
Find your edge
(Updated May '26)
| Dune | Competitor avg. | DIY (APIs + feeds) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| First insight in minutes | |||
| First insight in minutes | |||
| Polymarket and Kalshi in one unified schema | |||
| Polymarket and Kalshi in one unified schema | |||
| One market-category taxonomy across both venues | |||
| One market-category taxonomy across both venues | |||
| Consistent Yes/No direction across venues | |||
| Consistent Yes/No direction across venues | |||
| Hourly candlestick prices, updated daily | |||
| Hourly candlestick prices, updated daily | |||
| User positions and resolution outcomes | |||
| User positions and resolution outcomes | |||
| Positions joined to onchain address labels | |||
| Positions joined to onchain address labels | |||
| Per-fill fee amount | |||
| Per-fill fee amount | |||
| Composable with exchange, token, and wallet data | |||
| Composable with exchange, token, and wallet data | |||
| Vendor absorbs schema upgrades | |||
| Vendor absorbs schema upgrades | |||
What you can research by category
Filter the chart above to focus on what your team needs.
| Category | What the markets cover | Signal use case |
|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve rate decisions across multiple outcome thresholds, consumer price inflation prints, jobs reports, government shutdown, debt ceiling, single-name equity strikes (AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, TSLA, SPY weekly closes), S&P 500 inclusions, earnings outcome thresholds, M&A close probability, commodity dailies. |
| |
| Elections, tariffs, trade policy, regulatory decisions, agency appointments, OPEC and energy policy decisions. |
| |
| Token price thresholds, ETF approvals, protocol governance, exchange decisions. |
| |
| AI model releases, antitrust decisions, product launch outcomes. |
| |
| Geopolitical events, conflict outcomes, international trade decisions. |
|
Top markets by category
Top three event-level markets by lifetime USD notional in each category, unified across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Why now
Two years of regulatory wins, institutional investment, and academic validation.
DC Circuit vacates CFTC denial of Kalshi political contracts.
Kalshi opens sports event contracts; CFTC takes no enforcement action.
CFTC drops appeal; Kalshi political contracts permanently legal.
Kalshi $185M Series C; Citadel CEO participates personally.
ICE invests $2B in Polymarket and becomes global institutional data distributor.
Kalshi Series F at $22B, backed by Coatue, Morgan Stanley, Sequoia, a16z, and Paradigm.
Polymarket secures CFTC amended Order of Designation; US re-entry via FCMs.
Federal Reserve publishes FEDS 2026-010 citing Kalshi macro markets.
Pyth + Polymarket launch single-name event markets for TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, gold, oil.
First Kalshi institutional block trade (Greenlight, Jump, Houston environmental fund).
Trusted by 20k+ leading businesses
Data collection details
In collaboration withPolymarket andKalshi. Schema and aggregates verified 2026-05-08.
Macro
Fed-meeting binaries vs. CME FedWatch
From prediction_markets.ohlcv_hourly we pulled per-meeting binary prices on Kalshi and Polymarket for the Jan 28, Mar 18, and Apr 29 2026 FOMC decisions, joined with CME FedWatch implied probabilities on a unified daily grid. Across all three meetings, both prediction markets priced "no change" 5-20 cents richer than FedWatch for 2-3 months before converging at resolution.
Macro
Year-long path: how many Fed cuts in 2025?
From prediction_markets.markets we identified the parallel Kalshi and Polymarket count ladders ("Will N Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?"), then used prediction_markets.ohlcv_hourly to reconstruct each day's full probability distribution across the 0-8+ buckets and compute implied E[N cuts]. Across 347 trading days, Polymarket priced 0.2-0.4 cuts above Kalshi for most of the year, both venues dropped together during the February recession scare, and both reconverged to 3.0 at resolution: the realized outcome.
Commodities
Commodity event contracts: WTI front-month settle
From kalshi.market_details we pulled the ~15 to 35 'Will WTI front-month settle above $X on [day]?' markets that Kalshi lists for every trading day under the KXWTI series. From kalshi.market_trades we VWAP'd the yes-price across strikes in the T-1 day window and inverted the survival curve to read the trader-implied median price for the next session. Each event resolves on the actual NYMEX close, so realized prices sit next to implied with no external feed.
Geopolitical
Geopolitical Binaries vs. Brent Crude Futures
From prediction_markets.ohlcv_hourly we stitched two Polymarket markets into one continuous Hormuz disruption probability series: "Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?" ($55M traded) and "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?" ($13M traded). Joined to Brent crude futures daily closes, the two re-rated together through the oil rally, an April reopening rally that dragged disruption to a 23% trough, and a May rebound back to 94% as the announced reopening failed to hold.
Dune Prediction Markets data in the media
Recent coverage that cites Dune data on Polymarket, Kalshi, trading volumes, wallet behavior, and prediction market trends.
Apr 23, 2026
Trump threats against Iran are a boon for prediction markets, including some backed by his son
Cites Dune for Polymarket wager volumes on Iran and Trump-related events.
Apr 20, 2026
Oil Rises, Stocks Fall as Wall Street Doubts Peace Bid (Evening Briefing)
References Dune Analytics for prediction market volumes tied to geopolitics.
Apr 9, 2026
FACTBOX: Some trades ahead of Trump policy moves raise questions
Cites Dune blockchain data analysis of timely Polymarket bets, including Iran ceasefire markets.
Apr 8, 2026
Newly created Polymarket accounts win big on well-timed Iran ceasefire bets
Uses Dune analytics on Polymarket blockchain data to examine new wallets and suspicious bets.
Mar 17, 2026
Arizona files landmark criminal charges against prediction market Kalshi
Notes roughly $5B in weekly trading volumes on Kalshi and Polymarket per Dune Analytics.
Mar 17, 2026
A journalist reported a missile strike. Then came the death threats
Analyzes roughly $200K at stake on Polymarket using Dune data.
Mar 5, 2026
'Is This Insider Information?' The Prediction Market Bets Driving a Campus Frenzy
Sources Dune data for Kalshi and Polymarket trading and influencer activity.
Mar 12, 2026
How insider-trading fears harm prediction markets
Cites Dune for notional platform volume charts.
Mar 2, 2026
Geopolitics Bets Hit a Record on Polymarket as Iran War Escalates
References user-compiled Dune Analytics data on record $425M+ geopolitics wagers and total site volume.
Get access
Polymarket probability series and trade data are free to explore on Dune. Kalshi signal research, wallet-level positions, and the unified cross-venue schema require Enterprise.
Polymarket
Polymarket's onchain exchange on Polygon, unified into one queryable dataset. Trade-level fills, hourly candlesticks, wallet positions, and combo markets, all under one schema since Nov 2022.
GranularityHOURLY
RefreshDAILY
TRADE-LEVEL
Open accessQuery for free
Good for market exploration, metric reporting, and basic backtesting.
Enterprise add on
Track wallet positions building up before a catalyst. See volume-weighted price moves in hourly candles. Check wallet PnL on settled positions, and follow combo (parlay) markets from open to settlement.
Kalshi
Kalshi's CFTC-regulated exchange, unified into one queryable dataset. Per-fill trades, hourly candlesticks, and full contract specifications, all under one schema since June 2021.
GranularityHOURLY
RefreshDAILY
TRADE-LEVEL
Open accessQuery for free
Good for market exploration and volume metrics using Kalshi's daily aggregate reports.
Enterprise add on
See volume-weighted price moves in hourly candles. Check per-fill trade data for every contract. Reference strike and settlement details for Fed meetings, inflation prints, and jobs reports since June 2021, and backtest signals against resolved outcomes.
Unified schema
Normalized Kalshi and Polymarket data in one schema, with consistent columns, categories, and settlement status.
GranularityHOURLY
RefreshDAILY
TRADE-LEVEL
Enterprise add on
Compare, filter, and backtest across both venues in one query, with no venue-specific transformation logic.
How to access the data
Three ways to query and integrate prediction markets data. Choose the one that fits your stack.
| Capability | Datashare | Dune Datahub | MCP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery | Sync to your warehouse | Query in Dune SQL editor | Model Context Protocol |
| Best for | Snowflake, Databricks, BigQuery, S3 | Dashboards, templates, API export | AI agents, automation, LLM workflows |
| API limits | No API limits | Dune query limits apply | Agent workflow limits apply |
Go deeper on prediction markets
RESEARCH · Dec 16, 2025
Prediction Markets: The Next Frontier of Financial Markets
Dune and Keyrock teamed up to produce the most comprehensive study of prediction markets yet. This article summarizes the core ideas, trends, and takeaways.
RESEARCH · Apr 14, 2026
Faster, Shorter, More Automated: Anatomy of Polymarket's Fastest Markets
An on-chain deep dive into Polymarket's fastest crypto markets: volume, automation, and fee economics.
RESEARCH · Apr 8, 2026
How Prediction Markets and Perps Handled the Iran War Oil Shock
Using Dune data, we compared Polymarket and Ostium during the oil spike from $66 to $115. Both captured the same macro trade, but served different needs: prediction markets for precise, smaller bets; perps for deep liquidity, continuous exposure, and scale. The takeaway is not one replacing the other, but each fitting a different type of trader.
Talk to our data solutions team
Flexible pricing based on your actual usage. Start with a preview dataset today.
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Ways to access the data
Datashare CTA
Datashare
Sync the full prediction markets schema to Snowflake, BigQuery, or Databricks. No API limits.
Dune Data Hub CTA
Dune Data Hub
Query the prediction markets schema directly in Dune's SQL editor. Start from a template or write your own.
Dune API CTA
Dune API
Programmatic access to the prediction markets schema. Same shape, REST-ready for pipelines, integrations, and product features.
Dune MCP
Plug prediction markets data into Claude, Cursor, Codex, and other MCP-compatible agents.