Digital Asset Brief

The midterms effect on stocks, read through onchain positioning

Prediction markets priced a Democratic sweep by 8 PM ET. Hyperliquid data show how traders positioned as AI stocks sold off: they bought the falling chip stocks and sold the winners.

Megacap earnings on Hyperliquid and Polymarket

Across 26 megacap earnings reports in 2026, Hyperliquid perps priced about 70% of the next opening gap by the end of US after-hours trading, while Polymarket's far smaller earnings contracts were more accurate a day ahead than at the release.

Trading the midterms on prediction markets

Elections reprice assets within hours. Prediction markets, where $513M of notional has traded on the outcome, price a Democratic sweep at 61-63% and a split Congress at 28-29%, and this time equity perpetuals will trade through election night alongside them.

Can you get GPU exposure onchain?

CME's GPU rental futures, planned for 5 October, are delayed to November at the earliest. Onchain, investors can already get exposure to compute through prediction markets, GPU-backed yield-bearing tokens and perpetual contracts.

Who Actually Trades Polymarket?

A wallet-level cohort analysis of Polymarket from March to August 2026: liquidity comes from a few dozen addresses, retail loses 14.5% on positions held to resolution, and only 271 professional directional wallets finish positive.

Digital Asset Brief: What Onchain Payments Add

Instant payment schemes now match onchain payments on speed and cost, so this issue asks what onchain actually adds. The answer is access: crypto card spend nearly quadrupled to $492m a month and agent payments reached 15.3 million, both funded without a bank account.

A holistic view of real-world assets

Dune's new RWA dataset tracks real-world assets onchain in both forms, tokenized and synthetic, across supply, holders, secondary trading, perpetuals and collateral use. This issue of the Digital Asset Brief is a first look at what it shows.

Digital Asset Brief #5: Korea's Chip Crash

How Hyperliquid's HIP-3 perps handled July's Korean chip crash: $21.8B of synthetic SK Hynix exposure traded through Seoul's halts, funding split between the ADR and ordinary shares, and thin depth suggests institutions have not arrived at scale.

Prediction markets are the real winners of the World Cup

Kalshi and Polymarket cleared $19 billion in notional volume on 2026 FIFA World Cup markets, more than the entire US legal sportsbook handle. In this issue we break down how volume, participation, and pricing diverged between the two venues.